Global commodity prices projected to surge 23% in 2026 on Middle East conflict: World Bank

By Gokhan Ergocun

ISTANBUL (AA) - Global commodity prices are projected to surge 23% in 2026 to their second-highest level since 2013 due to the Middle East conflict, Black Sea shipping disruptions and weather shocks, the World Bank said on Wednesday.

In its October 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook report, the bank forecast that overall commodity prices will retreat by 7% in 2027 and 8.8% in 2028 as supply constraints gradually ease.

Energy prices are set to jump 32% this year before falling 11.5% in 2027, representing upward revisions of 7% for 2026 and 14% for 2027 compared to the bank's April projections.

Global oil supply is expected to drop by 5.5 million barrels per day, or 5.2%, in 2026, marking the largest decline in more than four decades outside the 2020 pandemic recession.

Brent crude oil prices are forecast to average $91 per barrel in 2026, up from $69 in 2025, before receding to $79 per barrel in 2027 and $70 in 2028.

Higher prices and supply shortages are projected to cut global oil consumption by 2.5%, or 2.6 million barrels per day, this year, the third-largest annual drop on record after 2020 and 1980.

European natural gas prices are forecast to surge 58.3% in 2026 to $19 per million British thermal units amid depleted liquefied natural gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, before easing 7.9% in 2027.

Food commodity prices are on track to climb 10.3% in 2026 and another 7.2% in 2027, driven by higher energy input costs, Black Sea shipping attacks and a strong El Nino weather pattern.

Grain prices are projected to rise 14.1% this year and 9.3% in 2027, led by a 28% jump in wheat prices in 2026 as global wheat output contracts by 3%.

Beverage prices are expected to drop 23.9% in 2026 as coffee and cocoa production recover, while fertilizer prices are forecast to rise 14.3% this year before falling 12.4% in 2027.

The World Bank's metals and minerals price index is projected to reach an all-time high in 2026, rising 24.5% on supply constraints and strong demand from renewable energy, electric vehicles and data centers.

Aluminum, copper and tin prices have all hit records since April, with copper projected to average $13,200 per metric ton in 2026, up 32.7% year-on-year, before edging down 1.5% in 2027.

Precious metal prices are forecast to surge 39.9% in 2026 on safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions, before declining 8.3% in 2027 as higher interest rates in advanced economies weigh on non-yielding assets.

Gold is projected to average a record $4,600 per troy ounce in 2026, up 33.6% from 2025, before easing to $4,250 in 2027, while silver is expected to jump 75.9% to $70 per ounce this year.

The report warned that in an adverse scenario involving an escalation in the Middle East conflict, prolonged Russian oil outages and severe El Nino crop losses, Brent crude could average $105 per barrel in 2027.

Under that adverse scenario, food commodity prices would exceed the 2027 baseline forecast by 12%, pushing global inflation higher and worsening food insecurity, which affected 779 million people worldwide in 2025.

To help countries cope with fiscal pressures and economic fallout from the Middle East conflict, the World Bank Group has made $50 billion to $60 billion available, with $8.7 billion already disbursed to 25 countries.

Gökhan Ergöçün