Netanyahu bloc trailing opposition with projected 50 seats to 52 in final Israeli election polls
- Poll results are the last legally allowed ahead of next Tuesday's parliamentary elections
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- Poll results are the last legally allowed ahead of next Tuesday's parliamentary elections
By Said Amori and Rania Abushamala
JERUSALEM / ISTANBUL (AA) - Two opinion polls published Friday in Israel – the last legally allowed as elections loom – projected 50 seats for incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc in the 120-member Knesset, compared with 52 for the opposition camp led by Gadi Eisenkot, ahead of Tuesday’s parliamentary elections.
Public broadcaster KAN and private Channel 12 released the surveys four days before the vote. Both showed identical totals for the two main camps, but differed on how seats were distributed among parties.
Eisenkot’s Yashar party would win 22 seats, followed by Netanyahu’s Likud with 20, and former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s Together party with 14, according to Channel 12’s poll.
Jewish Power, led by National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir; Yisrael Beiteinu, led by Avigdor Lieberman; and the Democrats, led by Yair Golan, were each projected to win eight seats.
The Religious Zionism–Zehut alliance was projected to get nine seats, Shas seven, United Torah Judaism eight, and the United Arab List five.
The poll gave Hadash–Ta’al eight projected seats and the Hendel–Zelekha alliance four.
According to Channel 12’s bloc breakdown, Eisenkot’s camp would get 52 seats, Netanyahu’s bloc 50, Arab parties 14, and the Hendel–Zelekha alliance four.
KAN’s poll also projected 22 seats for Eisenkot’s party, 20 for Likud, and 14 for Bennett’s party, matching Channel 12’s findings for the three largest parties.
The Democrats, Yisrael Beiteinu, Jewish Power, and United Torah Judaism would each get eight seats, with Shas and the Religious Zionism–Zehut alliance seven apiece.
The joint slate of Hadash, Ta’al, and Balad would get nine seats, with the United Arab List at five. The Reservists party and the Economic Party would each get four.
KAN likewise put Netanyahu’s bloc at 50 seats and Eisenkot’s camp at 52.
-Prominent difference
The most prominent difference between the surveys concerned the Religious Zionism–Zehut alliance, which would get seven seats in KAN’s poll compared with nine in Channel 12’s.
KAN also projected nine seats for the joint Arab slate, compared with eight for Hadash–Ta’al in Channel 12’s survey.
In KAN’s poll, Netanyahu’s bloc fell one seat from 51 the previous week, while Eisenkot’s camp remained unchanged at 52.
Likud and Yashar each lost one seat, while Bennett’s party gained two, reaching 14.
On suitability for prime minister, KAN found Netanyahu and Bennett tied at 38% for the first time since late August. Netanyahu had led Bennett 38% to 34% in the previous survey.
In a separate matchup, Eisenkot got 44% support compared with Netanyahu’s 38%.
Against Bennett, Eisenkot got 35%, compared with Bennett's 22%, while 43% considered neither suitable to lead the government.
On turnout, 71% of respondents said they were certain they would vote. The figure reached 80% among opposition supporters and 75% among supporters of governing coalition parties.
The survey also found that 36% of voters had not definitively decided which party to support, up from 30% in the previous poll.
- Security perception
On security, 58% rated Israel’s situation as poor, compared with 37% who described it as good.
The proportion describing the security situation as poor reached 73% among opposition supporters and 28% among governing coalition supporters.
Asked about their preferred outcome if Eisenkot’s camp finished ahead of Netanyahu’s without reaching 61 seats, 27% favored a unity government and another 27% preferred fresh elections.
A further 26% supported a minority government formed by the change camp, with Arab parties abstaining from voting against it.
Among supporters of the governing coalition, 47% preferred another election, while 45% of opposition supporters backed a minority government.
The polls indicated that neither main camp would secure the 61-seat parliamentary majority needed to form a government on its own.
Under Israeli law, publishing new election poll results is prohibited from the end of the Friday preceding Election Day until polling stations close.
The Israel Democracy Institute says the restriction was adopted in 2007 to prevent misleading information and manipulating public opinion through polls shortly before elections.
Rania R.a. Abushamala