By Rabia Ali
ISTANBUL (AA) - Brazil’s election dispute has entered a new phase, with presidential candidate Flavio Bolsonaro yet to formally concede defeat, despite his Liberal Party (PL) recognizing President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s victory.
Bolsonaro initially threatened to seek annulment of Sunday’s election, which Lula won by more than 4.4 million votes.
He later said he would seek to have Lula’s electoral ticket disqualified over alleged abuse of political and economic power.
Bolsonaro also said he had been ordered to surrender his passports and barred from leaving Brazil under a separate investigation.
The dispute comes as Lula prepares for a fourth, non-consecutive presidential term, which is due to begin in January. He faces a strengthened conservative opposition in Congress, economic concerns and strained relations with US President Donald Trump.
Trump also questioned the election on Monday, saying it “looked like another rigged election” without presenting evidence of fraud.
Meanwhile, Brazil’s real recorded its steepest daily fall against the US dollar since 2002, according to media reports, following Lula’s victory.
- Legal challenge unlikely to overturn result
Bolsonaro initially threatened to seek annulment of the election over a two-hour extension of voting hours but later shifted to seeking the disqualification of Lula’s electoral ticket.
The extension followed requests from both campaigns. About 34,330 votes were cast after the original closing time, far below Lula’s winning margin of approximately 4.4 million votes.
Mahrukh Doctor, a professor of comparative political economy at the University of Hull, said the circumstances gave Bolsonaro grounds to challenge the result but that annulment was highly unlikely.
“Bolsonaro rejecting the result (when he lost) is not surprising – some would say ‘like father like son’,” she said.
Consuela Thiers, a lecturer in international relations at the University of Edinburgh, warned that rejecting election results could erode public trust, undermine democratic institutions and deepen political divisions.
She noted that former President Jair Bolsonaro also did not publicly concede defeat after losing to Lula in 2022. His party’s subsequent challenge over electronic voting machines was rejected by the electoral court.
“The margin between Bolsonaro and Lula is quite large to be attributed to the extension of voting time (about 4 million votes), which makes Bolsonaro's attempts to contest the results less credible,” Thiers said.
- Divided government awaits Lula
Analysts say that Lula’s victory does not necessarily signal a broader revival of left-wing politics across Latin America, where right-wing forces have gained ground in several countries.
Thiers said Lula benefited from the mobilization of voters who had not participated in the first round, an effective media campaign and his political experience.
But she cautioned against interpreting the result as a renewed left-wing surge.
“I think we should be cautious about presenting Lula’s victory as a signal of a renewed rise of the left, since other factors are at play,” she said.
Many voters, she added, may have supported Lula primarily to prevent another Bolsonaro presidency rather than out of strong personal loyalty to the incumbent.
Thiers, however, said Lula's victory is particularly "significant" for a region that has recently seen a marked turn toward far-right leaders, such as Keiko Fujimori in Peru, Jose Antonio Kast in Chile, and Abelardo de la Espriella in Colombia.
"Brazil now remains one of the few countries in the region led by a left-wing president.
"Lula’s victory in the last elections in Brazil came as a surprise in several ways. It was the first time since Brazil’s return to democracy that a candidate who lost the first round went on to win the run-off. It also ran counter to the broader anti-incumbency trend in which governing parties tend to lose elections."
Elizabeth Dickinson, deputy director for Latin America at International Crisis Group, said the election had produced a divided government, with the presidency remaining in left-wing hands while right-wing parties gained ground in the legislature.
“What we see is that really Brazil will have an essentially divided government because the parties on the right, did advance and did gain representation in the legislature and Lulas holds on to the presidency,” she said.
Dickinson warned that the arrangement would complicate efforts to build consensus.
“What that likely means is that it will be a few difficult years, in terms of governing, in terms of passing legislation, finding consensus, and that is really the political challenge that stands ahead for Lula as he enters his next term,” she said.
Lula’s priorities include managing public finances, addressing social and economic concerns and reducing political polarization. Negotiations with a more conservative Congress will determine how much of his program he can implement.
Meanwhile, Doctor called the result a rejection of ‘Bolsonarism’ and what the populist far-right stood for in terms of inclusion, human rights and progressive societal values.
- Relations with Trump under scrutiny
The election also has implications for Brazil’s relations with Washington, where Trump has questioned Lula’s victory despite the absence of evidence of electoral fraud.
Doctor said the US could initially increase trade pressure on Brazil but would eventually have incentives to adopt a more pragmatic approach.
“It is likely to switch to resolving trade issues on more technical rather than ideological grounds,” she said.
She pointed to US interest in Brazil’s critical minerals and rare earth resources as a reason for continued engagement between the two countries.
Lula is expected to pursue a foreign policy centred on multilateralism and balanced relations with partners including the European Union, China, India and others.
Dickinson said Brazil’s position in global supply chains and the future of the Amazon would remain important issues for the incoming administration.
“The Amazon, we know, is home to many of the minerals that are needed and in high tech and defense industries and the sort of rapid interest in these minerals, I think has placed Brazil really at the center of the geopolitical debate,” she said.
Thiers said that the Trump administration was probably expecting to gain another ally in the region, as they would have benefited from having the largest country and economy in Latin America within the US sphere of influence.
"In this sense, Lula’s victory is a setback for US plans in the region and the expansion of the Donroe doctrine."
“This victory comes at a time when the US is attempting to increase its influence through initiatives such as the Shield of the Americas, a US-led security coalition that has already attracted support from several conservative and far-right governments," she said.
