Yükleniyor…
- Truce in Russia-controlled Ukrainain city of Oleshky aims to facilitate aid deliveries and civilian evacuations amid worsening humanitarian crisis - Analysts say sustained ceasefire could build momentum for broader negotiations, but doubt it will hold amid failed truce attempts
By Kanyshai Butun
ISTANBUL (AA) - A temporary ceasefire has taken effect in the Russian-controlled Ukrainian city of Oleshky to allow humanitarian aid deliveries and civilian evacuations, but analysts remain skeptical about whether it will hold.
The ceasefire, announced by US first lady Melania Trump, took effect Tuesday and could serve as a test of broader US-mediated efforts to end the war.
Eugene Chausovsky, senior director at the New Lines Institute, told Anadolu that a ceasefire sustained beyond a “few days” could signal that both sides were willing to consider similar arrangements across a wider geography of the conflict.
Failure to sustain it, however, would reinforce the "status quo" amid already high levels of mistrust, he said.
- Truce could test prospects for peace talks
The truce comes ahead of trilateral peace talks between Russia, Ukraine and the US scheduled for the first half of November, raising the prospect that a successful local arrangement could inject momentum into broader negotiations.
Chausovsky said a successful truce in Oleshky “could breathe new life” into the upcoming talks and have important implications for the overall conflict.
“It is possible that this localized ceasefire in Oleshky could serve as a significant test for broader US-mediated ceasefire arrangements to be put into place between Ukraine and Russia,” he said.
Timothy Ash, an associate fellow in the Russia and Eurasia program at Chatham House, was more skeptical that a localized ceasefire would change the course of the war, saying Russian President Vladimir Putin still believed he held the upper hand.
"It’s possible that if the ceasefire holds it could generate some positive vibes around broader peace talks - but I doubt it," he told Anadolu.
Ash questioned whether the truce would alter Putin's approach to the war, arguing that Moscow's ambitions remained “maximalist," with Russia rejecting several ceasefire efforts and believing that US Donald Trump could reduce US support for Ukraine, weaken the Western alliance and ultimately make concessions to its demands.
- Humanitarian crisis
The truce comes as Moscow and Kyiv trade blame for the worsening humanitarian crisis in Oleshky, a city in Ukraine's southern Kherson region that Russian forces captured in 2022.
Oleshky had a prewar population of around 24,000, but estimates suggest only 1,700-2,000 people remain, many of them older residents unable to leave.
Thousands of people lost their homes to massive flooding caused by the collapse of Nova Khakovka Dam in 2023, with both sides accusing each other of blowing it up.
Ukraine has accused Russia of trying to turn the city “into a death trap,” saying the only exit route and a nearby river are mined and monitored by attack drones.
“Dozens of bodies lie in the streets or in homes, as Russians forbid residents from burying them. Families are starving, surviving on leftover garden vegetables, preserves and even snails,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said.
He added that the local hospital had run out of medicine and residents feared they would not survive the winter.
Moscow has rejected Kyiv's accusations.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov described the situation in Oleshky as critical, saying Kyiv “is doing literally everything it can” to prevent food and medicine deliveries.
Trump described the situation as “dire,” saying that without intervention, bringing humanitarian aid into the city and evacuating the elderly would be “impossible.”
- Will truce hold?
Although Russia and Ukraine agreed to halt fighting in the area from Tuesday morning to facilitate the humanitarian operation, analysts remain sceptical that the ceasefire will hold, given the broader military and political objectives of both sides.
“Failure of the Oleshky ceasefire would signify that diplomatic mediation efforts are still unable to overcome the competing objectives of Russia and Ukraine in their protracted conflict,” Chausovsky said.
“I think the war goes on and we see a winter of escalation by both sides,” Ash said.
