EXPLAINER – Brazil faces political crossroads as Lula, Bolsonaro head to runoff

By Maryam Ashalem de Andres

ISTANBUL (AA) – As Brazil heads to Sunday's runoff to elect its next leader, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Sen. Flavio Bolsonaro, are offering contrasting visions for the country's future, with economic policy, social welfare, public security and corruption among the main issues dividing voters.

Flavio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, received 47.03% of valid votes in the Oct. 4 first round, compared with 45.16% for Lula.

Neither candidate secured an outright majority, setting up a decisive contest for the leadership of Latin America's largest economy.

The final weeks of the campaign have featured rival rallies, televised debates and accusations over corruption and foreign interference.

Lula has emphasized workers' rights and social programs, while Flavio has focused on public security, fiscal restraint and closer ties with the United States.

- How does Brazil's runoff work?

Brazil elects its President through a two-round system. A candidate must receive more than half of the valid votes in the first round to win outright, excluding blank and null ballots.

Since neither candidate crossed that threshold on Oct. 4, Lula and Flavio advanced to the runoff.

The winner will serve a four-year presidential term beginning in January 2027.

Brazil, where voting is compulsory for literate citizens aged 18 to 70, uses electronic voting machines, allowing results to be counted rapidly after polls close.

The presidential contest is not the only race taking place on Oct. 25. Runoffs for governor will also be held in six states and the Federal District, covering seven federative units.

Regional contests will determine who governs Acre, Amazonas, Espirito Santo, Rio de Janeiro, Rio Grande do Norte, Tocantins and the Federal District.

Their results could influence relations between the next president and state governments, which play an important role in areas such as public security, health and education.

- Who are the candidates?

Lula, a veteran leader of the left-wing Workers' Party, returned to the presidency in January 2023 after defeating Jair Bolsonaro in the 2022 election.

He previously governed Brazil from 2003 to 2010, when economic growth and social programs helped establish his political legacy.

His current campaign emphasizes income distribution, workers' rights, public investment and protection for lower-income households. Lula argues that government spending and social programs can support economic growth while reducing inequality.

Flavio Bolsonaro is a senator from the Liberal Party and the political heir to his father's conservative movement.

His campaign seeks to turn dissatisfaction with the current government into support for changes to economic management, stricter law enforcement and closer cooperation with Washington.

His candidacy also tests whether the political movement built around Jair Bolsonaro can retain its national influence under a new leader.

Flavio's campaign draws on his father's conservative base while presenting him as an alternative to Lula's economic and social policies.

- Allegations of foreign interference

Allegations of foreign influence have emerged in Brazil's presidential campaign, focusing on US-linked political accounts and social media platforms.

Brazilian media reported that accounts on US social media platform X, some associated with President Donald Trump's political movement, published paid posts promoting Flavio Bolsonaro and prediction market Polymarket.

Brazilian electoral law prohibits third parties from paying to promote candidates and bars donations from foreign entities. Flavio's campaign said it had no knowledge of the advertisements, according to media reports.

Lula's campaign has also accused Meta, which owns Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp, of influencing the election through political advertising and the distribution of campaign content. Meta denied political bias, attributing reported disruptions to technical problems.

The allegations have raised questions about foreign-linked political advertising and the role of technology companies in elections, although no direct interference by a foreign government has been established.

- Social programs and public security

Among the major issues of the election, social welfare has been central to Lula's platform.

Programs such as Bolsa Familia provide cash transfers to low-income households, while Minha Casa, Minha Vida supports access to housing. Flavio Bolsonaro, meanwhile, has emphasized fiscal discipline and more efficient public spending.

Public security is another major issue, with organized crime, armed groups and violent offenses remaining prominent concerns across Brazil.

The candidates have proposed different approaches to combating criminal organizations and improving law enforcement.

Flavio has promised tougher measures against organized crime, vowing to classify major gangs and militias as narcoterrorist groups. He has also advocated expanding prison capacity and increasing the use of surveillance cameras and facial-recognition technology.

Lula, meanwhile, has called for greater federal coordination of security policy with states and municipalities.

He has proposed establishing a Ministry of Public Security to strengthen cooperation and support local law enforcement efforts.

While Flavio emphasizes tougher punishment and expanded policing powers, Lula favors a more coordinated approach involving different levels of government.

- Why has corruption become central to the race?

Corruption allegations have featured prominently in the campaign, drawing relatives of both candidates into the dispute.

Lula's past corruption convictions were annulled by Brazil's Supreme Court in 2021 on procedural grounds. He has repeatedly denied wrongdoing.

Flavio has also faced scrutiny over alleged financial misconduct and connections to businessman Daniel Vorcaro, associated with the collapsed Banco Master.

Investigators have examined an investment he reportedly sought from Vorcaro to finance a film about Jair Bolsonaro. Flavio denies wrongdoing.

Lula's son Fabio Luis Lula da Silva, known as Lulinha, has also faced investigations involving alleged influence peddling and pension-related fraud. He also denies wrongdoing.

During an Oct. 18 televised debate, Lula challenged Flavio to authorize the release of their financial records.

On Oct. 20, Lula's campaign submitted an authorization to the Superior Electoral Court covering eight years of his bank, tax and telephone records, as well as those of his wife and five children.

Lula made the disclosure conditional on Flavio releasing comparable records for himself and his relatives. Flavio had not agreed to the proposal at the time of the filing.

- What lies ahead?

Polls published over the past week show a close race, though Flavio has retained his narrow lead.

RealTime Big Data and PoderData put him at 52% of valid votes against Lula's 48%, while AtlasIntel/Bloomberg showed 51.1% to 48.9% and BTG/Nexus 50.3% to 49.7%.

The surveys had margins of error ranging from one to two percentage points, underscoring the importance of turnout in the final days.

The next president will face pressure to address household debt, public security and demands for better public services while managing public finances.

Lula is asking voters to endorse his record on social programs, wages and public investment, while Flavio promises tougher security policies and a different approach to public spending and foreign relations.

The election also comes amid a broader rightward shift across Latin America, following victories by conservative and center-right candidates in Chile, Colombia, Peru and Bolivia, alongside governments in Argentina and Ecuador.

As Latin America's largest country and a massive diplomatic player, Brazil could significantly influence the region's political direction.

Flavio has advocated closer alignment with US President Donald Trump, while Lula has emphasized maintaining independent relations with Washington, Beijing and other global powers.

Mariam Ashalem De Andres