FACTBOX - 8 key US Senate races in battle for control of Congress
- As Republicans currently hold 53 Senate seats, Democrats need a net gain of 4 seats to take control of chamber - Polling shows close contests in several Republican-held states, including Maine, Texas, Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, and Kansas
By Ahmet Salih Alacaci
WASHINGTON (AA) - Voters across the U.S. will head to the polls on Nov. 3 for midterm elections that could reshape Congress and determine President Donald Trump's ability to advance his legislative agenda during the final two years of his term.
All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the Senate's 100 seats – all elected at large – are up for grabs.
In the Senate, Republicans currently hold 53 seats, compared with 45 Democrats and two independents who caucus with Democrats, giving the latter 47 votes. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to secure a Senate majority.
Polls show close contests in several Republican-held states, while Democrats are also defending seats in states that supported Trump in the 2024 presidential election.
Here are eight Senate races drawing particular attention.
- Michigan
Democrat Abdul El-Sayed is facing former Republican Congressman Mike Rogers in the contest to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters.
A Detroit News/WDIV-TV poll done on Oct. 19-22 showed El-Sayed leading Rogers 51.4% to 45.1% among 600 likely voters, with 3.6% undecided. The margin of error was four percentage points.
Michigan's previous Senate election in 2024 was decided by just 19,006 votes out of more than 5.5 million cast, when Democrat Elissa Slotkin defeated Rogers to win the state’s other senatorial seat.
The race has drawn additional attention because El-Sayed, a former public health official, would become the first Muslim elected to the US Senate if he wins.
El-Sayed has hit back hard against claims that his religious faith would somehow amount to “double loyalty,” pointing out that the late John F. Kennedy, a Catholic, faced similar allegations when he ran for president in 1960.
- Maine
Five-term Republican Sen. Susan Collins faces Democrat Troy Jackson, a former president of the Maine Senate.
A Marist poll released Tuesday showed Jackson with 49% support among likely voters, compared with 47% for Collins. The survey was done on Oct. 22-25 and had a margin of error of 6.6 percentage points.
Collins won her previous election in 2020 with 51% of the vote, defeating Democrat Sara Gideon, who received approximately 42%.
However, Maine supported Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris in 2024 by 52.4% to 45.5% over Trump.
Wooing voters, Collins has touted her status as a powerful centrist who brings lucrative benefits to Maine. Jackson has called her centrism into question, saying that Collins largely supports Trump’s agenda.
- Texas
Republican state Attorney General Ken Paxton faces Democratic state lawmaker James Talarico for the seat held by retiring Republican Sen. John Cornyn.
Democrats capturing the seat would be a major upset, as they have not won a US Senate election in Texas since 1988.
A Univision/YouGov poll released Tuesday showed Talarico leading Paxton 50% to 45% among 1,000 registered voters surveyed on Oct. 13-21, with a margin of error of 3.8 percentage points.
Unusually for a Democrat, Talarico has made his Christian faith a large part of his campaign, and has also alleged that Paxton is corrupt. Paxton boasts an endorsement from Trump as well as heavy campaign spending by billionaire Elon Musk, who has companies based in Texas.
Texas – the second-largest US state by population – has over 19 million registered voters, up 2.2% from the 2024 presidential election.
In that election, Republican Sen. Ted Cruz defeated Democrat Colin Allred 53.1% to 44.6%.
- Ohio
Former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is seeking a return to Congress against Republican Sen. Jon Husted, who was appointed to replace JD Vance, as he gave up the seat when he became vice president.
An InsiderAdvantage poll done on Oct. 21-22 showed Brown leading Husted 47% to 44% among 1,200 likely voters, with a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points.
A Fox News poll done on Oct. 15-19 showed Brown ahead 52% to 47% among 1,592 likely voters.
Brown lost his reelection bid in 2024 to Republican Bernie Moreno, who got 50.1% of the vote against Brown's 46.5%. Trump carried Ohio by approximately 11 percentage points in the same election.
Brown has made his opposition to the building of new data centers a pillar of his campaign, while Husted has blasted Democratic policies on energy and immigration.
- Alaska
Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan faces former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola in a state that uses ranked-choice voting.
A Data for Progress survey done on Oct. 8-16 showed Peltola getting 47% of first-choice support, compared with 44% for Sullivan, among 694 likely voters.
A separate Public Policy Polling survey done on Oct. 14-15 showed Peltola leading Sullivan 48% to 47% among 578 registered voters, within its 4.1-point margin of error.
Sullivan won reelection in 2020 with approximately 54% of the vote, defeating independent Al Gross, who received 41%.
Alaska is a heavily Republican-leaning state, but the high price of gas and diesel fuel – already higher than in the 48 contiguous US states – since the start of the Iran war has squeezed many households, and could cause some voters to rethink their choices.
- Iowa
Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson is facing Democratic state lawmaker Josh Turek for the seat being vacated by Republican Sen. Joni Ernst.
An InsiderAdvantage poll done on Oct. 21-22 showed Hinson leading Turek 47% to 45% among 1,200 likely voters.
A Marist survey done on Oct. 8-11 showed Turek ahead 48% to 45% among likely voters, highlighting differences between recent surveys.
Ernst secured reelection in 2020 with 51.8% of the vote against Democrat Theresa Greenfield's 45.2%.
Trump carried Iowa by approximately 13 percentage points in the 2024 presidential election.
Farmers are a large constituency in Iowa, and many who supported Trump two years ago are unhappy about the impact of tariffs and high fuel prices on their wallets.
- Kansas
Republican Sen. Roger Marshall faces Democrat Adam Hamilton, a Methodist pastor, in a state that has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932, nearly a century ago.
An InsiderAdvantage poll done on Oct. 13-14 showed Marshall leading Hamilton 48% to 47% among 1,200 likely voters.
An earlier YouGov poll done Sept. 24-Oct. 4 put Hamilton ahead 48% to 45%.
The race has attracted an estimated $71 million in planned political advertising, according to The Associated Press, as both parties invest heavily in a state Trump carried by approximately 16 percentage points in 2024.
- North Carolina
Former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper faces Michael Whatley, a former Republican National Committee chairman, for the seat being vacated by Republican Sen. Thom Tillis.
A Quantus Insights poll done on Oct. 24-25 showed Cooper leading Whatley 51.4% to 42.8% among 722 likely voters, with 3.4% undecided.
A separate Harper Polling survey done on Oct. 20 showed Cooper ahead 49% to 39%.
National Republicans recently pulled their campaign spending from North Carolina, signaling they have conceded the seat as likely lost.
North Carolina was closely contested in the 2024 presidential election, when Trump received 50.86% of the vote against Harris' 47.65%.
More than 5.7 million ballots were cast statewide in that election, representing turnout of 73.7% among registered voters.
- Other noteworthy races
Georgia: Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff faces Republican Rep. Mike Collins in a state Trump won in 2024.
An Atlanta Journal-Constitution/University of Georgia poll done on Oct. 7-15 showed Ossoff leading 48% to 40% among 1,000 likely voters, with 12% undecided. Campaigning hard against what he calls corruption, Osoff is seen as a likely Democratic presidential candidate in the years ahead.
New Hampshire: Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas faces former Republican Sen. John Sununu for the seat being vacated by Democrat Jeanne Shaheen. A Rasmussen Reports poll done on Oct. 20-23 showed Pappas leading 50% to 44% among likely voters.
Nebraska: Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts faces independent candidate Dan Osborn. A GBAO poll done on Oct. 18-22 showed Osborn leading 46% to 45% among 800 likely voters, within the margin of error. Osborn has not committed to caucusing with either major party, potentially complicating calculations of Senate control.