Head of UN disarmament institute says machine warfare 'coming ever closer' as AI reshapes combat

By Merve Aydogan

HAMILTON, Canada (AA) - The director of the UN Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR) said Tuesday that machine warfare is 'coming ever closer,' as artificial intelligence is already embedded in military operations and decision cycles compress to machine speed.

"I think we can say machine warfare is coming ever closer, and the question, put simply, that's in front of us, is really: Are we going to let machines target and kill human beings?" Robin Geiss said at a news conference at UN headquarters in New York on new initiatives from UNIDIR's Centre of Excellence on AI, Peace and Security.

Geiss said AI and autonomy are found in "intelligence analysis, in target identification, drones, cyber attacks, information operations, and so on."

"As we speak, decision cycles are compressing; they're compressing to machine speed, and the margin for human judgment is increasingly narrow, including in the nuclear domain," he said.

He cautioned that the proliferation of AI capabilities means "the threshold, the entry point for very sophisticated operations, is getting lower," potentially allowing non-state actors to conduct advanced operations.

Geiss said a small number of countries and companies are shaping security outcomes in ways "that traditional arms control frameworks were not designed to address."

Acknowledging that "geopolitical competition and tension are serious obstacles to the way forward," he noted that concerns about AI's effect "are already transcending geopolitical blocs, and they’re prompting action from major powers."

Geiss said that together with Switzerland and Pakistan, UNIDIR will launch the center’s new forum Thursday in New York, which he described as "the only multi-stakeholder body within the United Nations system that works on AI in international peace and security and in the military domain."

He also announced that three other initiatives will be unveiled during the week.

He said the aim is to identify gaps and propose "concrete measures that can be implemented at the national and international levels, while ensuring that efforts to prevent misuse do not limit access to the peaceful uses and benefits of artificial intelligence for all."

On the battlefield, Geiss said the military AI race "is very much a race for speed," including "downsizing the sensor-to-shooter time."

"There is a wider risk of losing control not over individual weapon systems, but potentially if we’re overdoing it over military processes," he said.

Merve Gül Aydoğan Ağlarcı