Israeli elections: Will Trump’s endorsement help or hurt Netanyahu?

By Rabia Ali

ISTANBUL (AA) - US President Donald Trump's endorsement of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could prove a double-edged sword ahead of Tuesday's election, with analysts saying it may help the embattled leader consolidate support but is unlikely to sway many voters and could even backfire.

Trump publicly backed Netanyahu on Sunday for the second time in a week, urging Israelis to re-elect the prime minister and linking his leadership to Washington's campaign against Iran.

In a post on his Truth Social platform, Trump reiterated his support for Netanyahu, whom he had described a week earlier as a "Great Warrior Prime Minister" and a key partner in confronting Tehran.

The endorsement came as polls suggested Netanyahu's Likud-led bloc could struggle to secure the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-member Knesset.

Israeli analyst Ahron Bregman said Trump's intervention was unlikely to significantly influence the outcome.

"Trump's pledge will have little impact on the Israeli voters; it was more of a desperate attempt by Netanyahu, who begged Trump to give him an endorsement, to get some support from his friend, at a time when in Israel the opposition parties seem, at least according to recent polls, to do quite well."

Axios reported Sunday, citing US and Israeli sources, that Netanyahu had personally pressed Trump for additional public support last week, even suggesting specific language for the endorsement.

Netanyahu's Likud party denied the report, although Trump had told Newsmax earlier this month that people in Israel had asked him to intervene on Netanyahu's behalf.

Bregman, a senior teaching fellow at King's College London, warned that the intervention could backfire among Israelis who resent foreign involvement in domestic politics.

"Trump's endorsement might even cause damage to Netanyahu, as many Israeli voters, including from Likud, hate this external intervention in domestic Israeli politics," he said.

Israelis head to the polls Tuesday to elect all 120 members of the Knesset, Israel’s parliament, in a pivotal election that will decide the country’s political direction amid the Gaza genocide and the war with Iran.

Netanyahu's bloc faces a challenge from opposition parties, including one led by Gadi Eisenkot, as both sides seek a path to forming the next government.

A recent Channel 12 poll suggested Trump's endorsement had done little to boost Netanyahu's prospects. Some 64% of respondents said it would not influence their vote, while 17% said it made them less likely to support Netanyahu.

Only 12% said the endorsement strengthened their support for his Likud party.

- A divided electorate

Ryan Bohl, a senior Middle East and North Africa analyst at the RANE Network, said the endorsement could matter even if it fails to change many voters' minds.

"I don't think it'll change too many minds that are already made up, but Israel is such a fractious political environment, you don't need to change that many minds for it to necessarily be a decisive outcome."

Bohl suggested Trump's backing could discourage some traditional Likud voters from switching to rival right-wing parties, including those associated with opposition figures such as Avigdor Lieberman.

For center-right voters increasingly dissatisfied with Netanyahu, the endorsement could reinforce the argument that he is best placed to manage relations with Washington.

"I think for the center-right kind of national conservative voters that are traditionally go with Likud, who are getting sick of Netanyahu, I think this is a reminder to them that Netanyahu is, at least for the near term, at least for this presidency, indispensable."

Bohl said the endorsement could also strengthen Netanyahu's position in post-election coalition negotiations, particularly if neither bloc secures a clear majority.

Netanyahu could use his relationship with Trump to attract smaller parties or individual lawmakers during coalition negotiations, arguing that his ties with Washington give him an advantage on issues including Iran and the occupied West Bank.

- 'You don’t get a free meal from Trump'

Trump's endorsement marks an unusual intervention in Israeli politics, departing from the longstanding practice of US presidents avoiding explicit support for candidates in Israeli elections.

"I think it's unusual because American presidents don't usually endorse," Bohl said, describing the move as "very Trumpian."

He said the intervention comes as some Israelis question whether their country's close relationship with Washington can be sustained in the long term.

Netanyahu, however, could use his close relationship with Trump to argue that he is best placed to maintain strong ties with Washington, Bohl said.

But an endorsement from Trump does not guarantee electoral success.

Bregman pointed to Trump's backing of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who lost his country's parliamentary election in April.

“An endorsement from this guy in the White House is not necessarily a recipe for electoral success,” Bregman said.

He also questioned whether Trump's backing came without expectations in return.

Bregman raised similar questions about what Netanyahu might have offered in exchange for the endorsement.

“You don’t get a free meal from Trump,” he said. "What exactly did Netanyahu promise in return? I'm not sure. Perhaps Netanyahu pledged not to attack Iran before the Israeli elections and the American midterm elections."

- A changing US-Israel relationship

The endorsement comes amid growing debate in the US over support for Israel following the wars in Gaza and Iran.

Bohl said declining support for Israel among some Americans could create political challenges for politicians closely associated with the Israeli government.

“Israel is becoming more and more unpopular in the United States,” Bohl said.

He pointed to changes in the political environment surrounding the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), including shifts in campaign spending and the use of new political action committees.

Bohl also contrasted Trump's intervention with US Vice President JD Vance's decision not to endorse Netanyahu.

He argued that Vance was mindful of growing criticism of Israel among both left-wing voters and younger conservatives, a constituency that could matter if he seeks the Republican presidential nomination in 2028.

The distinction was particularly striking given Vance's decision to campaign for Hungary's Viktor Orban ahead of April's election.

"He knows Israel is a liability for both his party and for the United States writ large, and he's trying to keep himself distant from it," Bohl said.

- Implications for Iran, Palestinians

Beyond its potential electoral impact, Trump's endorsement could also have implications for Israeli policy toward Iran and the Palestinians if Netanyahu remains in office.

Bohl said Netanyahu's close relationship with Trump could give him greater freedom to pursue a hard-line regional agenda, although domestic and regional constraints would still limit Israel's ability to escalate conflicts on several fronts simultaneously.

He argued that Netanyahu has demonstrated an ability to persuade the Trump administration to support Israeli military action despite the political costs in the US.

Bohl said reports of possible further Israeli strikes on Iran illustrated how the relationship could shape future decisions, although the timing and likelihood of another attack remain uncertain.

A new Netanyahu government could also have implications for Palestinians in the occupied West Bank, where movement restrictions and threats against Palestinian communities have raised concerns.

Bohl said Trump's backing could give Netanyahu greater room to pursue policies Washington might otherwise resist, provided they did not directly embarrass the US president.

"If Netanyahu is able to get through as the next prime minister, he will have a close enough relationship with this White House" to pursue policies including further military action against Iran and expanded Israeli operations in Gaza and Lebanon, he said.